QANTAS: the road back for the A380 turns out to be longer than expected

Remember when Qantas was all gung-ho about bringing back its flagship Airbus A380, and it brought back the first early in November 2021?

Well, it’s November 2024, nearly 2025, and Qantas is talking about the ‘last’ one returning in 2026 according to ET. That’s right, the final double-decker super-jumbo jet won’t be gracing the skies until mid-decade. So much for fast-tracking, right?

Maintenance Marathon

The drawn-out recovery of Qantas’ A380 fleet is partly due to ‘what they casually call ‘heavy maintenance’ which of course is known and planned for. It looks like its the extensive upgrades including new business class and premium economy cabins, plus a makeover for the upper deck ‘premium lounge.’ That all leads to a long wait.

Pandemic Promises

Back during the pandemic, when the entire superjumbo fleet was collecting dust in the desert, then-CEO Alan Joyce was optimistic about reactivating all the remaining A380s by 2024. Contingent on international travel demand bouncing back to 2019 levels, of course. Spoiler alert: demand did bounce back, but so did supply chain delays.

Qantas has managed to get seven A380s back in the skies, with the eighth is expected by January 2025. Previously, Qantas boldly forecast that the final two A380s would return over ‘over the next 18 months.’ That was back in August /September 2024. Counting the months from those announcements would mean the final A380 will not return to the skies until March-ish 2026 if my month counting is correct.

The Mysterious Schedule

We haven’t had an update from Qantas since 2024 on when the remaining A380s are scheduled to return. We do know that the A380 will return to the Sydney-Dallas Fort Worth route from August 2025. This 16-hour journey, once only flown by an A380, will now be shared with a Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Nothing says luxury like mixing aircraft on a single route.

2PAXfly Takeout

Both Sydney and Dallas act as distribution hubs for passengers travelling on the route. Most passengers come from elsewhere and travel on to other destinations. That’s no surprise. Dallas might be near the centre geographically, but it is not the most significant destination in the USA.

I know there is plenty of travel demand at the moment, given the hiatus during the height of the pandemic. What I wonder about is whether demand will still be at its current high by the time Qantas has all these giant birds back in the air in 2026.

With some luck, supply chain issues and aircraft delivery delays will have eased. So, will 2026 give lucky passengers a glut of options and downward pressure on airfares?

I hope, but I won’t be holding my breath.